Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow
One day to go, and I have nothing to add. 'Twould be intellectually dishonest to pretend otherwise. I'm not going to pretend to have any special insight, not going to offer a crystal ball, not going to go into any premature hysterics about weeks-long challenges and constitutional crises -- that makes for a tense parlor game, but I really don't think that's going to happen, simply under the lightning-doesn't-strike-twice-in-the-same-place principle.
All I'd say is turnout, turnout, turnout. $600 million spent on the presidential race alone, and it all comes down to feet walking through the polling booths. Instinctively, that tells me to favor the Democrats, who have been better at those kinds of things for decades. But the GOP's made great strides in mobilizing the last couple election cycles, so I don't know how valid that is.
Another place to look is undecided voters. Historically, they break for Democrats -- another plus for Kerry. But does that factor in wartime? Are people less likely to go with the unproven entity? I've seen stats, for example, that says that if only half the undecideds go to Kerry rather than the usual two-thirds, that swings Minnesota to Bush. Mathematical craziness, and you can never predict tomorrow, especially the tomorrow that's happening tomorrow. Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow ...
In Wichita, a group of local film geeks is showing a film fest of campaign commercials tonight. That's my day's entertainment. Otherwise, I can't help but notice how much more attractive this city is than when I moved here in 1999. The city does a really nice job with public art -- nice remodeling of Riverside Park, traffic circles, of all things, in the central city, and some really neat downtown lighting at night. Tax dollars at work that work out well. The Wichita Art Museum's upgraded, the Museum of World Treasures, for all its hokey tendencies, is pretty darn well-done, and cool stuff is happening in all sorts of nooks and crannies. Viva!
All I'd say is turnout, turnout, turnout. $600 million spent on the presidential race alone, and it all comes down to feet walking through the polling booths. Instinctively, that tells me to favor the Democrats, who have been better at those kinds of things for decades. But the GOP's made great strides in mobilizing the last couple election cycles, so I don't know how valid that is.
Another place to look is undecided voters. Historically, they break for Democrats -- another plus for Kerry. But does that factor in wartime? Are people less likely to go with the unproven entity? I've seen stats, for example, that says that if only half the undecideds go to Kerry rather than the usual two-thirds, that swings Minnesota to Bush. Mathematical craziness, and you can never predict tomorrow, especially the tomorrow that's happening tomorrow. Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow ...
In Wichita, a group of local film geeks is showing a film fest of campaign commercials tonight. That's my day's entertainment. Otherwise, I can't help but notice how much more attractive this city is than when I moved here in 1999. The city does a really nice job with public art -- nice remodeling of Riverside Park, traffic circles, of all things, in the central city, and some really neat downtown lighting at night. Tax dollars at work that work out well. The Wichita Art Museum's upgraded, the Museum of World Treasures, for all its hokey tendencies, is pretty darn well-done, and cool stuff is happening in all sorts of nooks and crannies. Viva!
posted by Alan Bjerga @ 9:39 AM
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